Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.
During that darkly divisive time in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues
Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.
While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism
However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with America, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
- Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Document and Strategic Considerations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Succession Chatter and The Echo from the Past
This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.
But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Risk and A Wise Reminder
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
