Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
